Amid Market Torpor, Mill Valley Prices Tumble

The Marin real estate market continues to mirror the sluggish national economy. And while most cities saw solid increases in the average sale prices in the third quarter over the previous three months, Mill Valley average price plummeted twenty-six percent. See chart below.

Marin All Residential Q3 Sales Report

	AverageSale Price	MedianSale Price	UnitSales	AvgDOM	% Change from Q2 Average Sale Price
All Marin	$882,084	$696,000	609	100	3%
Belvedere	$3,179,167	$2,932,500	6	116	11%
Corte Madera	$978,328	$917,500	26	73	7%
Fairfax	$711,842	$645,000	19	106	3%
Greenbrae	$963,907	$929,000	19	71	2%
Kentfield	$2,378,688	$1,612,500	16	84	25%
Larkspur	$1,261,577	$1,252,900	13	142	10%
Mill Valley	$966,984	$870,000	73	88	-26%
Novato	$546,394	$481,000	178	104	5%
Ross	$2,645,654	$2,120,890	9	89	2%
San Anselmo	$889,767	$731,500	32	84	13%
San Rafael	$676,252	$625,000	140	93	5%
Sausalito	$888,516	$710,000	31	102	-1%
Tiburon	$1,753,153	$1,335,000	28	135	-4%

In the absence of a natural disaster or localized economic perils, there is no easy explanation for Mill Valley’s price crater. About the same number of homes changes hands in July – September as in the second quarter, and the ration of condo to single family is the same. If the drop was a reaction to mortgage availability or stock market activity, why would it not affect all of Marin? Sausalito and Tiburon were the only other towns to post a drop, but theirs were very modest.

Mill Valley saw a huge shift, as buyers migrated to the less expensive homes in large numbers.

	Mill Valley Prices	2009
	Q2	Q3
# Homes Sold <$1M	28	53
# Homes Sold >$2M	7	3

Does this mean your home has lost value? Not necessarily. The market is quite robust in Mill Valley, with 25% of the 181 available homes in escrow. Buyers are continuing to focus on the low end, however, and they are resisting the high end, with only three homes priced above $2M are in contract.

Call me now for a free price analysis of your Marin home – 415.300.0432. Get real-time market data on Twitter.

Do We Have the Guts to Gut Prop. 13?

Last month, San Francisco Assessor Philip Y. Ting launched a campaign to alter Proposition 13. This is an idea that is long overdue.

Now, before you start to get all red in the face, hear me out. I voted for Prop. 13 thirty-one years ago myself. But I was wrong. The idea of cutting gov’t waste and helping old folks keep their homes was irresistible. What we didn’t notice was that this new law covered not just residences but commercial properties as well. Which means sweet profits for all those businesses on the “right side” of Prop 13, and an uphill battle for all those on the other side. Completely unfair. Worse, the law requires a 2/3 majority of the legislature before any new taxes can be enacted.

State revenues from sales and income taxes have not been enough, especially in this severe recession. California has borrowed to make up the difference, and now we’re $24 billion in debt. Ting wants to “split” the tax roll, and begin to tax commercial property owners based on current valuations.

Essential services are being cut. Now is the time to change prop 13 and make California great again. We can’t afford this “Sacred Cow”. We never really could.

Why Appraisals are Clogging the System

New rules come at a cost for appraisals The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the New York State General Attorney have created a new agreement titled the Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC), which prohibits lenders, mortgage brokers, and real estate agents from selecting and having any “substantive” communication with an appraiser. ·    HVCC was created to protect consumers against fraudulent appraisals, which some industry experts believe was a contributing factor to inflated home values. ·      The code applies to all conventional, single-family loans that are originated on or after May 1 and are sold to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.  It does not apply to loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) or the Veterans Administration. ·    Under HVCC, a lender’s loan production staff is prohibited from selecting an appraiser for a property or having any “substantive” communication with an appraiser or an appraisal management company about a home’s valuation.  However, a non-loan production staff member may call the appraiser, or the lender can farm out the request to an appraisal management company. ·    Lenders no longer can perform “value checks,” where appraisers pull comps for a house to see if the numbers are likely to work for a client, before the actual appraisal is ordered. ·    Mortgage brokers and/or real estate agents cannot order or pay for an appraisal. ·      Borrowers will receive, free of charge, a copy of their appraisal at least three days before closing, giving homeowners more time to contest what they view as an inaccurate appraisal. ·    Because lenders are more likely to farm out requests to appraisal management companies, some appraisers believe borrowers will have to pay more out-of-pocket expenses–approximately $100 more than they would have previously. ·    The appraisal process may take longer, so some housing experts recommend borrowers lock in a mortgage rate for a longer period of time.  It’s important to note that the longer the lock, the more costly it is. ·     Some real estate industry analysts are worried that appraisal management companies may hire an appraiser unfamiliar with a neighborhood, which could lead to an inaccurate valuation.  To prevent this, appraisers recommend consumers check an appraiser’s name and license number with the California Dept. of Insurance to see where the appraiser is from and if the appraiser is familiar with the area where the home is located.  Consumers and/or mortgage brokers and agents can visit http://www.insurance.ca.gov/0200-industry/0070-check-license-status/ to check an appraiser’s license. To read the full story, please click here * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * TUNE IN – C.A.R. LAUNCHES 2009 CONSUMER AD CAMPAIGN! Your new TV, radio, and Web ads are up and running! Click here to listen to the radio ads and see the TV commercial & Web banners! * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * In Other News The Wall Street Journal The silver lining to falling home values: lower property taxes To read the full story, please click here CNN Most over- and under-valued housing markets To read the full story, please click here The Wall Street Journal Homebuilders dabble in spec To read the full story, please click here Mercury News Santa Clara County luxury home sales pick up in April To read the full story, please click here The Wall Street Journal Index suggests home sales are set to increase To read the full story, please click here The Wall Street Journal New programs put crime stats on the map To read the full story, please click here The Wall Street Journal Builders see signs of stabilization To read the full story, please click here