Has Your Marin House Value Gone Up or Down? POLL Results

Last week we asked you,  our blog and Twitter folk, whether you thought your house value is going up or down. Below is a chart of your responses, along with your comments.

Your Comments:

“It is holding its own, with perhaps a drop. Doesn’t matter to me, because I’m not moving any time soon. Kentfield will continue to be strong, due to location and schools. It’s part of the Gold Coast and will maintain its value over time.”	virtualtruth
“Live in Forest Knolls; I can recall only five houses sold in canyon area. I don’t believe many are putting their house on the market with an uncertain future looms.”	Anonymous
“Owned the house since 1989… in my opinion value peaked in 2006….”	cg
“AND I don’t want to know!”	pc
“Just guessing here…”	altjl

Thanks to all of you who took a few minutes to complete our POLL and leave your comments. To some degree, we are all just guessing. This morning I was startled to learn that nearly 40% of the homes and condos on the Marin market today are in escrow, with accepted offers. Now that the holidays are over, maybe we will begin to see a bit more inventory – the buyers are certainly out there looking. If you are thinking of selling, call me now because this may be as good as it gets this year. Buyers? As we work out of the stormy season we will begin to see lots more homes to choose from. Now’s the time to start searching, so you can make an informed decision when the right place comes up. What are you thinking?

At-risk FHA Borrowers in Marin Will Receive Early Relief Assistance

Homeowners with loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), including those in Marin County, experiencing financial hardship now are eligible for loss mitigation assistance prior to defaulting on their mortgage, the Dept. of Housing and Urban Development announced Friday. Previously, borrowers with FHA-insured loans were not eligible for such assistance until after they had missed payments.

FHA also issued guidance to FHA-approved loan servicers on how to assist FHA borrowers who are facing “imminent default,” defined as an FHA borrower who is current or less than 30 days past due on the mortgage obligation and is experiencing a significant reduction in income or some other hardship that will prevent him or her from making the next required payment on the mortgage during the month that it is due. Unfortunately, in this economic climate, that includes more and more of us in Marin County.

To become eligible, borrowers must be able to document the cause of the imminent default which may include, but is not limited to, a reduction in, or loss of, income that was supporting the mortgage; or a change in household financial circumstances.

Loan servicers must document the basis for its determination that a payment default is imminent and retain all documentation used to reach its conclusion. The servicer’s documentation must also include information on the borrower’s financial condition. Not yet known is how this will affect the creditworthiness of the borrower. Call me for further information, 415.302.7787. Cheers!

Amid Market Torpor, Mill Valley Prices Tumble

The Marin real estate market continues to mirror the sluggish national economy. And while most cities saw solid increases in the average sale prices in the third quarter over the previous three months, Mill Valley average price plummeted twenty-six percent. See chart below.

Marin All Residential Q3 Sales Report

	AverageSale Price	MedianSale Price	UnitSales	AvgDOM	% Change from Q2 Average Sale Price
All Marin	$882,084	$696,000	609	100	3%
Belvedere	$3,179,167	$2,932,500	6	116	11%
Corte Madera	$978,328	$917,500	26	73	7%
Fairfax	$711,842	$645,000	19	106	3%
Greenbrae	$963,907	$929,000	19	71	2%
Kentfield	$2,378,688	$1,612,500	16	84	25%
Larkspur	$1,261,577	$1,252,900	13	142	10%
Mill Valley	$966,984	$870,000	73	88	-26%
Novato	$546,394	$481,000	178	104	5%
Ross	$2,645,654	$2,120,890	9	89	2%
San Anselmo	$889,767	$731,500	32	84	13%
San Rafael	$676,252	$625,000	140	93	5%
Sausalito	$888,516	$710,000	31	102	-1%
Tiburon	$1,753,153	$1,335,000	28	135	-4%

In the absence of a natural disaster or localized economic perils, there is no easy explanation for Mill Valley’s price crater. About the same number of homes changes hands in July – September as in the second quarter, and the ration of condo to single family is the same. If the drop was a reaction to mortgage availability or stock market activity, why would it not affect all of Marin? Sausalito and Tiburon were the only other towns to post a drop, but theirs were very modest.

Mill Valley saw a huge shift, as buyers migrated to the less expensive homes in large numbers.

	Mill Valley Prices	2009
	Q2	Q3
# Homes Sold <$1M	28	53
# Homes Sold >$2M	7	3

Does this mean your home has lost value? Not necessarily. The market is quite robust in Mill Valley, with 25% of the 181 available homes in escrow. Buyers are continuing to focus on the low end, however, and they are resisting the high end, with only three homes priced above $2M are in contract.

Call me now for a free price analysis of your Marin home – 415.300.0432. Get real-time market data on Twitter.

Cloudy With a Chance of Realtors

As the Marin real estate market continues to tighten, competition among agents for sales is becoming more intense. Sometimes it seems that they (we) are falling out of the sky like rain – or meatballs. While all agents share certain characteristics, like state licenses and business cards, the results we produce can vary significantly. After thirty years in the business in Marin County, I am happy to share a few tips to help you dodge the meatballs and choose the right agent for you.

But first, set your priorities and your goals. What do you want to get out of your real estate transaction, and by when? Get real.

-                      If you are selling, research the recent sales in your area so that you will make an educated choice in pricing. Do at least the superficial, cosmetic improvements that will make your home appeal to prospective buyers. Ask yourself, what’s more important to us, the money or the time? Do we want to hold out for our price, no matter how long it takes, or are we ready to price at the market and move on?

-                      Buying? Meet with a qualified mortgage professional and provide her with all the information she needs to get you a commitment from a credible lender. Then search the internet to get a general idea what you can buy for the money: in Marin, try www.GreatHomes.org. Ask yourself, what’s more important to us, the money or the time? Are we going to insist on stealing a home or waiting for the bottom of the market? Or are we motivated to make a fair deal and get on with our lives?

Here are some qualities you need to look for:

Market knowledge. Knows the inventory and keeps up with local trends. You want the person who represents you to have the facts at her fingertips and the skills to use them in negotiations.

Peer credibility. Marin is a small town and in this business you live or die by your reputation. Make sure that your agent is well known and respected in our local real estate community. Tag along on broker’s tour (Wed. or Thurs. mid-day) and observe how the other agents respond to your host, because his/her standing is critical to your success.

Seasoning. More than half of Marin agents were not even in the brokerage business five years ago. And while a newer agent may bring skills from another business or a youthful enthusiasm, this is their first experience with a down market. A few years ago, if they could fog a mirror they could sell homes. Today it takes deep skills learned in past recessions to produce results for you. Go with the grizzled veteran over the shiny newbie on this one.

Productivity. There are about 2,075 paid Marin members of the local multiple listing service, and in the past year only 313 have closed one or more sales (See, already our job is getting easier!) Remarkably, many agents advertise themselves as being Number One. Ignore the hype, and find an agent who actually listens to you, and asks you the e right questions to get your project moving forward. From the get go, your agent needs to deliver real value, in terms of market data and advice targeted to your needs.

Networking. Today there are two distinct markets where homes are offered for sale in Marin County.

-                      The traditional multiple listing service is available to all its members, and most of the MLS properties can be found on the internet at various aggregator sites. While you will find fairly-priced homes and realistic buyers, much of the activity here is distressed or bank-owned homes in lower price ranges, and bargain-hunting buyers tussle with stubborn owners who are living in the past. It can be difficult to sort through the clutter.

-                      Many of the choicer houses in Marin today change hands privately through a network run by the top agents (TAN). Your job is to work with an agent who has access and skills in both markets.

With more agents chasing fewer sales, I hope this helps you avoid most of the meatballs. Of course, call me direct with questions, 415.302.7787 or jmclaughlin@fhallen.com.

Top Five Reasons Your House Didn’t Appraise

By Jack@mmsmarin.com

You found just the right house at last. Or you are trying to lock in a low refi rate. You know what the house is worth, but the appraisal comes in well below value: what’s up with that? You are not alone. In today’s tight lending climate, if your house doesn’t appraise, here are the most common reasons.

1. Under the new rules, your lender can no longer select, or even communicate with, the appraiser. They must use an independent – but often bank-owned – appraisal management company (AMC).
2. The appraiser couldn’t find your house. The AMC maximizes profits by selecting the cheapest appraiser, regardless of their location. The appraiser may come from Pleasanton to value your Mill Valley house. And local knowledge, especially in eclectic communities like Marin County, is critical to determining market value.
3. Your lender no longer can perform “value checks,” where appraisers informally pull comps to see if the numbers are likely to work for a client, before the actual appraisal is ordered and paid for.
4. The appraiser was incompetent. AMC requires professional appraisers to cut their fees as much as 50%. Since the best won’t work for less, they hire the new and less skilled appraisers, who may perform less thorough valuations.
5. There aren’t any good comps. With fewer sales, appraisers may need to look in dissimilar areas or go back in time to find similar properties that sold.

Call me if you have a problem. I can likely help you get the numbers up. Jack 415.302.7787